Rob and Spinks Megginson of RedZone Weather talk about predictions for the 2024 Hurricane Season.
Video Transcript:
Rob: I'm Rob of Rob Brooks Realty and this is Spinks Megginson of Red Zone weather. Spinks, we just had a report that there's going to be an active 2024 hurricane season. Tell us about that please.
Spinks: Yeah, that's exactly right. The premier agency that issues our hurricane forecast is Colorado State University and CSU is predicting a very active hurricane season. Last year was an active season not really for the United States as much, but this year could be more active, not only for the United States, but all the nations involved in the Atlantic Basin. So, we're talking in excess of 20 name storms, 10 to 15 hurricanes, and three, four, maybe even five, major hurricanes during the upcoming season, so there is a chance that we're looking at a very active season.
Rob: Those numbers, as you just said, is way more than we've had in years past, so tell us why, why such a, why is that predicted for this year?
Spinks: Yeah, so we're looking at conditions coming out of an El Nino going to La Nina, and so what that means is we've got uh surface water, in other words, the temperature of the ocean off the coast of Ecuador of all places in the Pacific, uh those are actually trending down. In other words, the sea surface temperatures are likely to be below normal and you may be wondering well how does that impact our local weather that's 2,000 miles away.
Rob: Absolutely, I was thinking that's like getting hurricane information from Colorado.
Spinks: That's exactly right. No but it's interesting because this is what we call a teleconnection. In other words, uh the weather pattern in a certain part of the world in this case off the coast of Ecuador of all places, has a big impact on what happens here in the Atlantic Basin and in the Gulf of Mexico. And so it really could be an active hurricane season definitely time to prepare.
Rob: Okay so and let me, let me go into preparing, but first, I want to ask this question. In our area, so people living up and down the coast that watch this video, we're mainly concerned about so active hurricane season. What is the chances of something hitting our city?
Spinks: Yeah well…
Rob: What are the chances of destruction in our city?
Spinks: Yeah so, unfortunately, I can't tell you nor can anyone and you know be aware of anyone that tries to, you can't really forecast exactly where tropical storms and hurricanes are going to form in advance. So yes, I can tell you most likely we're going to have an active season across the Atlantic Basin, which means the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea in the Atlantic Ocean, but I can't really get specific as to where those storms are going to form and where they're going to go and so the big key message with all this is yes, we're looking at an active season, but really with any hurricane season, it's so important to be prepared.
Rob: Absolutely, you know, maybe 10 cities in Florida will be hit. Who knows, but suppose 10 States. Well there's 100 or more cities that are in there, so that so maybe that gives some sort of indication. But when we talk about predicting hurricanes, what if we were talking about statistic statistics and how confident they are in the predictions, yeah, how confident can we be that these predictions are going to be accurate?
Spinks: Yeah, so two points on this. Number One: We're very confident that the hurricane season will probably be active, if not what we call hyperactive, not only because of the La Nina that I talked about a second ago, but also if you just look at kind of a fundamental factor. If you look at the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean, they're running above average and so anytime you have sea surface temperatures above average, that makes it more conducive for these storms to form. So confidence is quite high. From June to November, which is hurricane season, of course the core season is August September and October, uh we really have to be on our guard and be ready and be prepared just in case we have not only an active hurricane season, but potentially a hyperactive season.
Rob: Right okay, so I deal with houses, people are, you know, buying houses. What can people do to prepare in advance for a hurricane? You know hurricane's coming, we know 3 days in advance, okay there's preparations that could be done. How about way in advance, months in advance, what can we do?
Spinks: Yeah so that's a great question. So number one: it's so important to have a plan. I know that you know we should have a plan for just about everything these days, but it's so important to have a plan. What we find is that folks that have a plan and know if they're going to evacuate, if they're not going to evacuate, even if you're not going to leave the area in advance of a major storm, having a plan and being able to execute that plan of am I going to have to go to the store in advance to get a bunch of food, maybe some extra prescriptions and things like that. What we find is that folks that have a plan have better outcomes than folks who don't have a plan, so number one is what I would tell you is have a plan. Number two very important here…
Rob: A checklist!
Spinks: Exactly and that plan, when we do have hazardous conditions. Number two: have a way to get urgent weather information and be aware that a lot of the stuff posted on social media these days is bogus. You know, unfortunately, uh somebody, anybody can get on social media and post a single model image and that's like posting a picture of a stick of butter and calling it a cake, you know. It's a recipe right. Yeah exactly, so a forecast is simply a recipe looking at all the models, all those ingredients, and putting them together and being aware that on social media you may kind of see some bad information so have that trusted source of information. And number three, it's kind of the stuff that we've heard all our lives, have that emergency prep kit, you know, ahead of a hurricane. There's things like bottled water, extra prescriptions, batteries, all those things that you're probably familiar with if you live in this area or even new to the area because we promote it so well. Just simply have those supplies on hand it's so so important ahead of hurricanes. So those are my three main things, not only have a good uh you know reliable way to get weather information, have those extra supplies and also simply be aware and have a plan. Those are the three main points.
Rob: Okay very good, thank you. And so what you talking about getting the weather information, my wife Melody and I have found for years that you do a terrific job of presenting the whole picture and giving very, very accurate information when there is bad weather. So tell, please tell everybody, how they can find you so that they can also benefit as my wife and I have?
Spinks: Yeah well, thank you for your kind words first of all. So we have Red Zone weather and it's an app on iOS and on Google Play and of course, if you're on social media, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram the like, you can find Red Zone weather. It's a totally free app. I would encourage you to set up those alerts that you would like to receive from us so when we do have tornado warnings, obviously we don't want that, but when it does happen, we know it's coming, you can have a good reliable way to get urgent weather information and we certainly are appreciative of Rob and of what he does every day to be one of our Red Zone weather sponsors and so that uh it's a tremendous help to us. So thank you very much as well.
Rob: Yeah you're welcome Spinks and thank you Spinks. I'm Rob of Rob Brooks Realty and this is Where I Live.